The Core Proposal and Kyiv’s Red Lines
The unexpected emergence of a draft peace proposal, reportedly developed by US and Russian officials through backchannel communications, has intensified diplomatic pressure on Kyiv. The proposal, said to be a 28-point framework, is allegedly being spearheaded by figures close to the Trump administration, notably Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. Critically, the details of the plan lean heavily toward Moscow’s long-standing demands, creating a crisis for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has repeatedly stated his country will not cede sovereign territory.
Draconian Measures and Territorial Capitulation
Sources familiar with the details indicate the plan asks for major concessions from Ukraine. On territory, it reportedly calls for Ukraine to recognize Russia’s control over Crimea and the other annexed regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson). This demand directly violates Ukraine’s foundational principle of restoring its 1991 borders. Furthermore, the proposal includes measures to dramatically limit Ukraine’s military capabilities, specifically by requiring a reduction of its standing army to as few as 400,000 personnel—a cut of more than half—and a ban on long-range weaponry. Such a reduction, combined with territorial losses, would be viewed by many in Kyiv as a complete capitulation, leaving the country vulnerable to future Russian aggression.
International Reactions and The Diplomatic Tug-of-War
The news has been met with mixed and cautious reactions globally. European allies, particularly those within the EU and NATO, have expressed alarm at being blindsided and insist that any plan must have the full agreement of both Ukraine and its European partners. Key European diplomats have stressed that they have seen “no concessions on the Russian side” and that the war has one aggressor and one victim. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has publicly denied any significant progress on a new plan, maintaining an official stance that they are open to talks but are unaware of a new US-brokered agreement of this nature. In Ukraine, the President’s office confirmed receiving a “draft plan” and agreed to work on its provisions but was quick to emphasize that they will only proceed while outlining Ukraine’s “fundamental principles.” Zelenskyy’s efforts to navigate this diplomatic crisis come amid a significant domestic corruption scandal, which some analysts suggest Russia and its allies are exploiting to further pressure Kyiv into accepting a deal.
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