For decades, the world assumed that the great shipping lanes — the arteries of global trade — were secure. Oil tankers, grain carriers, and container ships crossed the oceans with relative safety, protected by international law and naval patrols. But today, the seas are more dangerous than at any time in the past 20 years.
From the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the Gulf of Guinea, from the Red Sea to the South China Sea, commercial vessels now face a complex mix of threats: militant attacks, state-linked militias, pirates, cyber sabotage, drone strikes, and politically motivated interference.
The world’s shipping system — responsible for moving 90 percent of global trade — has become a frontline in geopolitical conflict. And the consequences for food prices, energy markets, and supply chains are already being felt around the world.
A Multilayered Crisis at Sea
The surge in maritime insecurity is not driven by a single cause. Instead, several independent dangers are occurring simultaneously:
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regional wars spilling into maritime zones
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state-sponsored militia attacks on cargo ships
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a new wave of piracy in West Africa
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organized cyberattacks on port infrastructure
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commercial vessels becoming political targets
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drones and missiles replacing boarding crews
Maritime analysts say the world has entered a new era — one where shipping vessels are no longer neutral carriers, but pawns in global confrontations.
Bab el-Mandeb & the Red Sea: The Most Dangerous Corridor of 2025
The narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait — just 32km wide — links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal. Nearly 12 percent of global trade moves through this chokepoint.
Today, it is one of the most unstable waters on Earth.
Militia Attacks and Drone Strikes
Iran-backed Houthi forces have repeatedly launched:
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drone strikes
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ballistic missiles
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anti-ship cruise missiles
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explosive sea drones
on commercial shipping.
Some attacks have targeted vessels with only loose or symbolic links to Western countries.
Global Shipping Rerouted
Fearing attacks, many major shipping lines — including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd — now route vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding:
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up to 10 days of travel time
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millions of dollars in extra fuel costs
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delays for European and Asian supply chains
Insurance premiums for Red Sea routes have surged by more than 250 percent, adding inflationary pressure across industries.
Naval Escorts Return
For the first time since the early 2010s, multinational naval escorts are again protecting merchant vessels.
Yet the vastness of the region makes full protection impossible.
“This is the most sustained period of maritime threat in the Red Sea since the age of privateers,” says Lt. Commander Farid Hassan, a former Middle East naval advisor.
The Gulf of Guinea: Piracy Evolves, Not Disappears
Once known as the world’s piracy capital, the Gulf of Guinea (off Nigeria, Benin, Togo, and Ghana) remains extremely dangerous despite declining numbers of hijackings.
A New Type of Pirate
Modern West African pirates rely less on seizing entire ships and more on:
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fast kidnappings
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hostage-ransom operations
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nighttime boarding
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attacks on offshore oil infrastructure
The region’s pirates are heavily armed, often linked to criminal networks tied to illegal oil bunkering and political militias.
Crew Kidnappings Spike
In 2024 and early 2025, kidnappings have once again increased.
The International Maritime Bureau warns that attacks are becoming more violent, with hostages held deeper inland and for longer periods.
Regional Navies Are Underfunded
Nigeria’s navy operates an enormous coastline with limited ships and little ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) capability.
Even with EU naval support missions, the region remains unstable.
The South China Sea: Strategic Tension Meets Commercial Shipping
Though not as dramatic as the Red Sea, the South China Sea is now one of the world’s most heavily militarised bodies of water.
China’s Grey-Zone Tactics
China frequently uses:
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coast guard vessels
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militia fishing fleets
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patrol drones
to pressure Philippine, Vietnamese, and Malaysian vessels.
Commercial ships are sometimes caught in the middle.
Shipping Becomes Collateral Damage
Oil tankers or cargo ships that enter disputed waters risk:
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forced inspections
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detentions
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“accidental” collisions
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harassment from maritime militias
The issue is not piracy — it is geopolitics.
Cyberattacks: The Invisible Threat to Global Ports
Not all attacks happen at sea.
Port Infrastructure Under Assault
Ports in the U.S., Rotterdam, Singapore, South Africa, and Australia have all been hit by major ransomware or cyber sabotage incidents since 2022.
These attacks can:
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disable cranes
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lock digital manifests
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shut down customs systems
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redirect or lose shipments
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cause weeks of delays
A single cyberattack at a major port can disrupt global supply chains more effectively than a physical attack.
Ship Hacking
Modern vessels rely heavily on:
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GPS
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satellite comms
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automated navigation
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digital engine management
Hackers can potentially:
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alter a ship’s route
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disable propulsion
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cause collisions
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falsify positions on AIS tracking
This is no longer science fiction — shipping cybersecurity firms have logged thousands of attempted intrusions.
Why Shipping Routes Are More Vulnerable Than Ever
1. Global Conflict Has Shifted to the Seas
Regional wars and proxy conflicts increasingly spill into maritime zones, where commercial ships provide high-impact targets with low political risk.
2. Vessels Are Larger, Slower, and Less Defensible
Modern container ships can be over 400 metres long and carry 20,000+ containers — nearly impossible to protect.
3. Cheap Weaponry Makes Attacks Easy
Drones costing $5,000 can threaten vessels worth hundreds of millions.
4. The Shipping Industry Is Understaffed
Global shortages of seafarers mean fewer trained officers, making ships easier targets.
5. Ports Are Overwhelmed
Port congestion and digital transformation increase vulnerabilities.
The Economic Consequences: Rising Prices and Slow Supply Chains
Maritime insecurity translates directly into economic pressure.
Higher Transport Costs
Rerouting ships around Africa adds enormous expenses:
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oil becomes more expensive
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food imports take longer
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manufacturing components arrive late
Inflation Returns
Higher shipping insurance and fuel costs push up prices for:
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food
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electronics
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energy
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household goods
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industrial materials
Just-in-time Models Collapse
Supply chains built on tight scheduling now face unpredictable delays.
Europe and Asia Are Hit the Hardest
Europe relies heavily on the Suez Canal and Red Sea.
Asia depends on open sea lanes for exports.
If shipping slows — economies wobble.
Can the Crisis Be Solved?
There is no single solution, but several strategies may reduce risks.
1. Stronger Naval Coalitions
International task forces could expand to protect the most vulnerable chokepoints.
2. Hardened Commercial Vessels
Future vessels may incorporate:
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counter-drone defences
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stronger hull barriers
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enhanced radar and surveillance
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cyber-safe navigation systems
3. Regional Security Pacts
Africa, Southeast Asia, and Middle Eastern states need coordinated patrols.
4. Cybersecurity Standards
Ports and ships must adopt mandatory cyber-resilience rules.
5. Diplomatic Pressure
Reducing regional conflicts — from Yemen to Nigeria — remains essential.
But many analysts warn that the age of “safe oceans” is over.
A New Era of Maritime Insecurity
Global shipping has become the frontline of a world defined by fractured geopolitics, cheap weaponry, and highly interconnected economies.
The Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Guinea, and the South China Sea are now contested waters — where pirates, militias, hackers, and state actors blur together in a complex web of threats.
The consequences reach every supermarket, fuel pump, and factory floor on earth.
As one shipping executive put it:
“If the oceans aren’t safe, the global economy isn’t safe.”
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