The political row following the recent Autumn Budget has escalated sharply after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog, confirmed it formally complained to the Treasury about repeated leaks that created a “false impression” of the country’s public finances ahead of the Chancellor’s announcement.
The complaint, detailed in evidence presented by OBR members to the Commons Treasury Committee, reveals significant tension between the independent economic body and the government’s political wing.
Misconceptions and Misleading Briefings
OBR members, including Professor David Miles, told MPs that the constant media briefings and leaks originating from the Treasury in the weeks leading up to the Budget were “unhelpful” and “damaging to the OBR.”
The key “misconceptions” the OBR felt compelled to address included:
-
Rosy Forecasts: The false impression was given that the OBR’s forecasts had wildly swung at the last minute or had significantly improved, supposedly allowing the Chancellor to backtrack on certain tax-raising plans. Professor Miles stated that the supposed “good news” that led to policy U-turns “didn’t exist.”
-
Fiddling Figures: The watchdog was reportedly deeply troubled by the perception that it was somehow “fiddling the figures” to politically assist the Chancellor.
-
Headroom: Miles clarified that the fiscal headroom available to the Chancellor at the time was a “sliver” or “wafer thin,” contradicting the impression of a comfortable financial buffer.
To counter these misleading narratives, the OBR took the highly “unusual step” of publishing a letter detailing the evolution of its forecasts over time. This public clarification was intended to “set the record straight” and restore faith in the independence of the OBR’s process.
The Political Fallout
This public confirmation of a formal complaint has intensified political tensions. Opposition figures are using the OBR’s evidence to renew accusations that the government deliberately attempted to mislead the public and markets about the true state of the nation’s finances to set the stage for the Budget.
The OBR’s evidence also coincided with a separate incident where the OBR’s final document was inadvertently released online almost an hour before the Chancellor delivered her speech, an error that led to the resignation of OBR Chair Richard Hughes. However, the controversy over the intentional pre-Budget leaks by the Treasury represents a far more significant challenge to the integrity of the Budget process and the relationship between the government and its official economic adviser. The continued fallout suggests that the political implications of these briefings will linger long after the Budget announcements themselves.700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749 750 751 752 753 754 755 756 757 758 759 760 761 762 763 764 765 766 767 768 769 770 771 772 773 774 775 776 777 778 779 780 781 782 783 784 785 786 787 788 789 790 791 792 793 794 795 796 797 798 799 800 801 802 803 804 805 806 807 808 809 810 811 812 813 814 815 816 817 818 819 820 821 822
