WASHINGTON, D.C. — March 6, 2026 — NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office issued a definitive “all-clear” today for the Moon, confirming that the asteroid 2024 YR4 has zero chance of impact during its close approach in 2032.
The announcement comes after a year of international concern that the 200-foot-wide space rock—roughly the size of a 15-story building—might strike the lunar surface. New, high-fidelity data from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has refined the asteroid’s trajectory, moving the projected 4.3% chance of impact to a confirmed safe flyby.
The 13,200-Mile Clearance
The updated orbital model, calculated by experts at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), shows that on December 22, 2032, 2024 YR4 will zip past the Moon at a distance of 13,200 miles (21,200 kilometers).
While this is a “close shave” in cosmic terms—roughly 1/18th the distance between the Earth and the Moon—it provides a vital safety buffer for the next decade of lunar exploration.
“This is a triumph of precision tracking,” said Lindley Johnson, NASA’s Planetary Defense Officer. “Using Webb to pick up a faint, fast-moving target and cross-referencing it with Gaia star maps allowed us to retire this risk years in advance. The Moon is safe, and our future lunar inhabitants can breathe a sigh of relief.”
A Relief for Artemis and Lunar Base Planning
The news is particularly significant for the Artemis program and private ventures like SpaceX and Blue Origin, which plan to have permanent infrastructure on the Moon by the early 2030s.
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Avoiding “Ejecta” Rain: Had 2024 YR4 struck the Moon, the impact would have been equivalent to a 6-megaton nuclear explosion, carving a 0.6-mile-wide crater. More dangerously, it would have sent millions of tons of lunar debris into orbit, potentially creating a “Kessler Syndrome” environment for lunar satellites and descending landers.
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Seismic Stability: A strike of this magnitude would have triggered a Magnitude 5.0 moonquake, potentially damaging sensitive scientific equipment and the structural integrity of pressurized habitats.
The Science We’re Missing
While the “all-clear” is good news for safety, some in the scientific community are calling the miss a “lost opportunity.”
“A strike by an object this well-characterized would have been the most significant natural experiment in lunar history,” noted Dr. Ed Lu of the B612 Foundation. “We would have been able to observe the impact flash from Earth with the naked eye and study the fresh crater in real-time.”
Instead of a catastrophic collision, scientists will now focus on the gravitational flyby, using the close approach to study the asteroid’s internal structure and “spin rate” as the Moon’s gravity tugs on it.
Asteroid 2024 YR4: Fast Facts
| Metric | Specification |
| Discovery Date | December 27, 2024 |
| Estimated Size | 197 feet (60 meters) |
| Closest Approach | December 22, 2032 |
| Miss Distance | 13,200 miles (21,200 km) |
| Velocity | 9 miles per second |
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