HONG KONG – Consumers planning to upgrade their hardware this year are facing a harsh new reality. According to a wave of supply chain reports released today, the price of smartphones and laptops is set to climb steadily throughout 2026. This isn’t a typical inflationary spike; it’s the result of a structural “memory war” where your pocket devices are losing out to the massive data centers powering the global AI boom.
At the center of the crisis is DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory). As of mid-January 2026, contract prices for mobile DRAM have surged by over 70% compared to early 2025, with no signs of cooling.
The Great Memory Diversion
The shortage isn’t due to a lack of factories, but a radical shift in what they produce. Leading chipmakers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have reportedly hit a “zero-sum” production wall.
To satisfy the insatiable demand for AI chips (like those from Nvidia and AMD), manufacturers are diverting silicon wafers away from standard consumer RAM toward High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM).
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The HBM Penalty: Producing 1GB of HBM requires roughly 3 to 4 times more wafer capacity than 1GB of standard smartphone RAM.
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The Data Center Hunger: Experts estimate that AI data centers will consume nearly 20% to 30% of total global DRAM output in 2026, up from less than 5% just three years ago.
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Sold Out: Micron recently warned that its high-end memory capacity is effectively sold out through the end of 2026, leaving consumer brands to scramble for “scraps” in the spot market.
Impact on Your Wallet: Smartphones and Laptops
For the average buyer, this supply chain friction translates directly into higher sticker prices.
| Device Category | Expected Price Hike (2026) | Primary Driver |
| Premium Smartphones | +$50 to +$100 | High LPDDR5X costs; Galaxy S26 & iPhone 18 hit hardest. |
| Mid-Range Phones | 10%–15% increase | Tight margins force brands to pass costs to users. |
| “AI PCs” / Laptops | $150–$300 increase | Microsoft’s 16GB RAM minimum requirement for Copilot+. |
| Enterprise Servers | Up to 30% | Massive demand for high-capacity DDR5 modules. |
“The assumption that tech gets cheaper over time has officially broken,” says Carl Pei, CEO of Nothing, who recently warned that rising component bills would force price adjustments across their 2026 lineup.
The “AI PC” Paradox
The timing of the shortage creates a frustrating irony for the industry. In 2026, every major manufacturer is pushing “AI PCs”—laptops designed to run AI locally. However, these machines require a minimum of 16GB or 32GB of RAM to function effectively.
Just as the industry is demanding more memory to make AI accessible, the infrastructure of AI itself has made that memory prohibitively expensive. In response, some manufacturers are reportedly considering “downgrading” entry-level models back to 8GB of RAM, potentially crippling the very AI features they are trying to market.
Is There Any Relief in Sight?
Market analysts at IDC and TrendForce suggest this is a “permanent reallocation” of resources rather than a temporary glitch. While new fabrication plants (fabs) are being built in the U.S. and Europe, they are not expected to reach full capacity until late 2027 or 2028.
For now, the advice for consumers is clear: if you see a 2025-era device on sale with 16GB of RAM or more, grab it. By the end of 2026, that same specification may carry a “luxury” price tag.
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